Armchair Quarterbacks in the Blogosphere
June 28th, 2007 by Rich JacobsonMy family and I lived in the Midwest for 15 years, 5 of that was in Chicago. We moved there shortly after the Bears had won the Super Bowl with the likes of Jim McMahon, Walter Payton, Mike Singletary, and William “The Refrigerator” Perry.
In the seasons that ensued, the Bears struggled to find the right fit at the quaterback position (
there’s been 24 players who have taken the snap between McMahon and Grossman).
During our time in the Windy City, the debate was raging between Jim Harbaugh and Mike Tomczak. Never before in the history of spectator sports have so many fair weather fans and critics hotly voiced their vast wealth of expertise and knowledge by second-guessing the decisions of Coach Ditka and the boys up in the front office. Who better to pass judgment on the professionals disciplined in the skill of football than those who, week after week, sat wedged in the comforting confines of their Lazy Boy recliners, sucking down ice cold brewskis and stuffing their faces with smoked brats?
In similar fashion, the Blogosphere has long been the breeding ground for such self-proclaimed ‘Armchair Quarterbacks.’ Anyone with a blog, an expanded vocabulary, and a condescending attitude gains immediate credibility as an expert in any field, profession, or discipline. Subscribe to the Wall Street Journal, or quote the latest market trends from the Economist or Fast Company, and your opinions carry even more weight.
Nevermind that these ’Armchair Bloggers’ have never actually ’played’ the game. Oh, to be sure, they’ve probably watched a few times from their sheltered corporate skyboxes while sipping on the lastest trendy microbrew. Most are obviously quite intelligent, possessing a basic understanding of the rules. Heck, some are even well-versed in the latest team/player stats.
But the fact still remains, they’ve never really actually played the game.
Playing any sport well requires commitment, knowledge, discipline, lots of hard work, and practice. This is especially true in the realm of professional sports. Or, perhaps, even with a career in, say, real estate, for example. Personally, I wouldn’t presume to know enough about being an NFL quarterback that I would be willing to step in for Hasselback at Qwest Field on a Sunday afternoon. And I certainly don’t think I’m qualified to critcize him for throwing an occasional interception, or blaming him when the team doesn’t win.
It’s not Matt’s fault that a domestic beer costs $6.50 a bottle, or that buying a ticket to watch him play requires an arm, a leg, and my firstborn child.
A good friend of mine flies for Alaska Airlines. He’s a retired Navy pilot. Over years and years of commitment, acquiring knowledge, exercising discipline, consistent hard work, and practice, he’s become a very successful and accomplished commercial pilot. He’s responsible for the lives of hundreds of people everyday. Now, even though I have a fairly good understanding about the law of aerodynamics, I would never begin to think of critcizing the way he handles a 737. It’s not his fault that my flight last January went to LA, but my bags ended up in Phoenix. Do I write him a nasty gram every time the plane is late leaving the gate? Or do I verbally flog him over the fact that I have to refinance my house to buy a round trip ticket, and only get a small packet of stale peanuts?
But, hey, what do I know? I’m just a licensed, professional real estate agent here on the Kitsap Peninsula WA. I can’t control the market, whether the bubble is bursting or homes aren’t affordable. I just work hard at genuinely and relentlessly representing the best interests of my client’s to the very utmost of my abilities, through constant continuing education, discipline, hard work, and daily practice, helping them to successfully achieve their Next Adventure in Life!
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OSBBDA,
Welcome back on the 4th of July.
All in all I think the interaction here is moving towards a positve mode where all of us can express our views. Consider your apology accepted and I thank you for it. Let’s just leave the “pathetic” description in the past where it belongs.
This statement we can agree on completely:
“An adversarial format does not have to be hostile, rude, or even contentious…It makes for a more meaningful learning experience.”
Welcome aboard…
Thanks for taking a chance with an “official” devil’s advocate. I can’t say that I have ever run across a blog that has one. Now I know how Ron Blomberg must have felt back in April of ’73.
As for me saying that your blog was “pathetic…”
If I did, I do apologize. I would like to read that in context, but if I insulted your blog, then I was wrong. I can see where I may have referred to a comment or statement as pathetic, but I wonder where I went after the entirety of your blog.
Link spam? I yield again, and do apologize. I did have a formatting error that made one post pretty awkward. Thanks for cleaning that up.
I assume that my $100 word was “panglossian.” It seemed to fit. Using that word removed any hint of an accusation of fraud, malice, or intentional misrepresentation. It allowed the originator to be as much a victim as the receiver. 25 years of a virtually unbroken bull market in residential real estate has had a strong and insidious mollifying effect on most. It causes people to believe it will always be the way it presently is. Unfortunately, that is like driving down the freeway and navigating by looking in the rear view mirror. Forecasting is about anticipation – not retrospection.
An adversarial format does not have to be hostile, rude, or even contentious. It just means that I like to be challenged and challenge other opinions. It makes for a more meaningful learning experience.
OSBBDA
After 32 years with Delta Airlines – I moved on to real estate. I write and maintain our blog.
Well – said on all accounts – the original post and the follow up comments.
OSBBDA,
You certainly have well developed thoughts and for that you are to be commended. Knowing both Rich and Mark, they also embrace and encourage such dialog. However, both Rich and Mark are very thoughtful professionals that represent their professions ethically and well.
Being a bit of an egghead myself, I choose not to use $100 words when a $5 word does as well. Actually, a $5 dollar word is actually better when a greater number of people understand what the word means. Isn’t communication about communicating?
While I am familiar with every word you used above, I am smart enough to know most people aren’t.
Your reasoning makes sense and shows you have put considerable thought into the issues you so passionately state. However, condescending and hateful attacks are both counter-productive and stop the discussion you are attempting to encourage.
I for one welcome your dialog, but let’s keep it respectful.
OSBBDA,
Good morning and thanks for and interesting read! It’s not often that I have to resort to a dictionary. This morning I had to. “Panglossian” was not a word I was familiar with. Thanks for the knowledge
SYLLABICATION: Pan·gloss·i·an
PRONUNCIATION: pn-gls-n, -glôs-, png-
ADJECTIVE: Blindly or naively optimistic.
ETYMOLOGY: After Pangloss, an optimist in Candide, a satire by Voltaire
As we seem to be clearing the air, you should know that although Rich and I share the task of maintaining this site, I (Mark) deal with all administration of it. Rich was unaware that I had taken action until after the fact. As far as specific examples? I didn’t keep copies of the previous comments. It seemed rather pointless to me. I will admit that your reference to SoundBiteBlog as “PATHETIC”, is, in my opinion, less than civil.
The practice of leaving “kerosene comments” as I call them, or “flame bait” as Rich found they have been labled, is something I prefer to see limited on this blog. In addition, we have never allowed link spam. Unecessary links inserted into comments will be stripped out.
The internet is a vast place with plenty of room for all the different styles of writing. Ours is not an inflammatory blog format. That was a personal decision. I don’t care for sites that encourage “noise for the sake of attention”. The inflammatory blog style is one I find tedious.
We are writing for a very small audience. Our goal is simply to keep people informed. Our subject target is generally real estate in Western WA. But that varies with the day. This was never meant to be a dry site full of dry text. Sometimes we write about crabs or the beauty of living in the Pacific Nortwest. Sometimes we write about our children and our families. Sometimes we write about local businesses that caught our attention. In any event, we write for our own reasons, and visitors seem to respond well.
I believe there is considerable need for real estate related information in our community. I don’t believe the basics can be covered too often. Every person on the planet is at a different stage in their individual educations. So, no matter when I write about something as mudane as How an Adjustable Rate Morgage Works, there is likely to be a reader looking for that information at that particular time.
I will admit to being an optimist. It is something I work at daily. Optimism vs. pessimism is a personal choice. I have chosen optimism. Whether or not my optimism is panglossian, is of course a matter for debate.
On the other hand, we are not looking to create a monologue here. Dialog is much more educational. Your (quickly accepted) role as the site’s Devil’s Advocate, should improve the experience for visitors to SoundBiteBlog. Looking at all sides of an issue is mature. Demanding that one’s own perception is the only correct perception, is in my opinion, immature. With that in mind, I will look forward to a different viewpoint.
I believe Rich will agree with me that we don’t think of ourselves as experts. We certainly don’t try to convince the internet community that we are. We think of ourselves as students of life. It’s a fascinating journey. Neither of us swears much, we drink rarely and we spend as much time as possible with our families. Our careers are important to us, as an extension, not as a definition of who we are. We take our ethical beliefs with us into each new transaction.
I found this comment illuminating:
“I find that I learn best in an adversarial format…”
LOL. I have met many people over the years that prefer the adversarial format. It certainly imbues a conversation with energy and activity! I personally prefer quiet conversations. But, if you ever visited my home at Thanksgiving, you would find that most of my Italian in-laws feel the adversarial style is the ONLY sane approach to any conversation. We have had heated debates(?) about sausage!
If your purpose here is to stimulate conversation and thought, you will find yourself welcome. Rich and I are invariably good-humored converstationalists. We have well-developed senses of the ironic as well. If your purpose is simply to create chaos, well then… I will quietly remove our blog from the conversation, as I did before. My life has taught me that the loudest person in a room is usually not the one most worth listening to. I don’t look at pictures of train wrecks or buy sensationalist publications by choice. Confrontational conversations (online or off) are not something I find enjoyable. SoundBiteBlog reflects that mentality. It’s a friendly place; we like it that way
Fair enough. Please tell me exactly what I have said that is uncivil. Spirited disagreement is normally not considered uncivil.
If I said anything that is uncivil, I do heartedly apologize.
I don’t care if you make your living selling real estate. I really don’t. What I object to are panglossian statements that make it seem that we have some special immunity idol that protects us from economic reality – the same economic reality that is devouring many other markets that also thought they were special. When I see young families extend to buy housing with unsustainable financing and unrealistic appreciation expectations, I know they will be in BK and their houses sold on the courthouse steps in PO. I have no vested interest in putting someone in a house they can’t afford.
No, the sky is not falling. You don’t need bomb shelters or anything else. What you do need is a cogent argument on why paying 10-15X income for a house at an historic market top with unprecedented unafordability is a sound financial decision when the historical norm is 2-4X. Kitsap prices are very out of whack with prevailing incomes. Any sound financial plan would take that into account.
I was stunned at the statement that the Navy protects us from wild swings in the market, yet it didn’t seem to protect us on the way up. You have every mid-grade Petty Officer buying a house, whereas this is risky even for a Lieutenant. When the market turns, you will have many in the USN that are carrying excessive debt. That plays hell with your security clearance.
The business of buying, building, and servicing real estate in Kitsap is pretty large – and laughable. Bainbridge is virtually a cartoon characterization of this phenomenon. There will be several unemployed families when the bubble finally bursts in the PNW. I have lived all over the country and have never seen anything like this. Yes, it has been a national phenomenon for the past few years, but the PNW and Kitsap are especially nuts. Where would we be if we weren’t selling Californians homes?
You are in sales. I respect that. Your job is to find the biggest stack of cash for a piece of property that you can. I have absolutely no problem with that. Sometimes people will disagree. In my case, all I did was ask a series of questions. Yes, I know these questions are specifically designed to call into question the viability of perpetual appreciation of home prices. Some RE professionals know this is a bubble and those that have been buying in the past 18 months are going to be in for a real shock when prices adjust to normal valuations. They don’t issue blanket statements about how the “specialness” of the region trumps economic realities. It didn’t work for San Diego, Boston, or Phoenix. It won’t work for us.
All of my extended family live in Kitsap. We go back prior to statehood. This is my home. Yes, I am uncomfortable with the Californication of my community. That’s the breaks. People are assigning the same paradigm that has been functioning in California since the 70s to Kitsap. They will be ruined. Kitsap is a fairly low income community (X-BI) and job opportunities are scarce. That’s why you see someone move here from the OC, buy a home, and start schlepping real estate. I believe you have a blog entry on the newbies that are transient RE agents. Perhaps we share the same misfortune.
I do enjoy your blog. Some of the entries are very informative and captivating. Yes, I am a cynic on the recent runup in residential RE. It will end like all other bubbles end – guaranteed. I do think it is a bit prudent to be prepared for that eventuality. Going “all in” on the NAZ back in 1999/2000 on some broker’s statement that we were in a ‘New Economy’ and traditional metrics are no longer valid would have been disastrous. At least back then you could only margin yourself 50% and all you lost was your investment money. Now, you can lever yourself up 100:1 or greater, and your home hangs in the balance.
Every bubble is characterized by “experts” that claim “this time it really is different.” It is a necessary component for a bubble to form and pop. There is no exception to this rule.
I do fondly remember being accused of perpetual cynicism, incivility, and outright bigotry when I would posit that the NAZ was a bomb waiting to go off. People would get all red-faced and shout me down when I went through the business models and balance sheets of many of the tech darlings. The closer we got to the top, the more people became intolerant of any dissent. This is absolutely no different. People prefer echo chambers.
I do admit that my posts are out of the norm for your blog. I never thought they were uncivil. If you could send me specific examples of how I was uncivil, perhaps I would issue a written retraction and apology. Disagreement does not equate to incivility. I enjoy a spirited discussion more than most. I find that I learn best in an adversarial format, and I am hoping that someone on SBB can teach me something.
Thanks for my “reinstatement.” I hope to have many cordial and spirited engagements.
This post just confirms that so called “experts” really have no clue. The best example of this are Wall Street “analysts”. A chimpanzee could probably make better picks using his a$$cheeks.
A real “expert” would be able to look around and realize they are in a profession with no future. No short term future due to the impending implosion in SFH prices and a bleak long term outlook once control of the MLS is out of your hands.
As we used to say in 4th grade, ‘moded, corroded, your booty exploded!”
Harbaugh was OK and Tomczak was a woman… The Bears have always had problem QBs…
I like any blog that talks about my beloved Bears… http://www.agentscoreboard.com/blog/2007/04/03/da-bears/
As for the armchair thing… I completely agree. Marc Davison was talking about this the other day.
Guys like Glenn Kelmen and Rich Barton that have never sold a home are going to “change” the real estate industry…. good luck guys…
http://www.1000wattblog.com/1000_watt/2007/06/elephant-in-the.html
Maggie, it’s always a pleasure to see you’ve been visiting!
Linda, LOL! I thought it went “Those that can, do; those that can’t, critique”
Irina, Welcome to our little corner of the world, I don’t think I’ve seen you here before.
Maureen M, it’s been a while! Welcome back
Oingo,
Welcome back to SoundBiteBlog. It’s a friendly place and we like it that way. We also truly enjoy an energetic conversation. Your voice is welcome here. We do like to play by the rules of civil conversation though. As long as that’s acceptable to you, we will expect the devil’s advocate role to be yours. Fair enough?
Oingo/Eleua – Well, at least your tone is a bit more civil this time. I’m just curious as to what your point is in all of this? Okay, so the sky is falling and all life on earth as we know it will cease to exist. I get that. But what ‘really’ is your point? What is it that you want all of us to do exactly? Stock up on canned goods and invest our money in bomb shelters?
How much expertise do you have in an economic downturn that is greater than the ’81-2 recession?
What is the history of real estate during periods of severe economic dislocations?
What was the last period in US history that had: negative national savings rate, negative national home price appreciation, and an unprecedented leveraged stock market?
Hint: FDR was early in his presidency.
How much did trendy real estate lose in that decade? Hint: 90%+/-
I just heard from a “mortgage expert” on one of my entries on ActiveRain, not exactly the same thing because as an out of state mortgage broker I am sure he knows lots about mortgages. He certainly had some strong opinions about mortgages in Ohio. My entry had absolutely nothing what so ever to do with mortgages however.
The internet brings out the yahoos to rant and some of them are members of the community. I will be reading your blog closely though now looking for clues.
I know just the photo for a new blog entry now… thanks for being my muse.
Rich, I totally agree with Linda – I can’t get through WSJ – boring…
I think some folks have nothing better to do in life, but to feel important by criticizing others. Different strokes for different folks. I’m glad though, that blogs allow people freedom to express their opinions in a hopefully fun, non-intrusive manner.
Good post!
Reminds me of the expression “Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach.” I love all these self proclaimed real estate “experts” who tour around the country telling people how to sell real estate when they never sold a lick of it in their lives. Don’t get me wrong, there are some good ones, but many have never really played the game. That’s been going on for a long time and now the blogosphere has bred a lot more teachers than doers.
Rich, it’s so much fun for know-it-alls to sit back and criticize. Got anyone particular in mind? btw, I gave up the WSJ after 2 trial subscriptions and I could never make it past 1st page. Great post.