Real Estate and March Madness
March 21st, 2009 by Rich JacobsonOkay, so I’ll be first one to admit that I’m a bit biased towards Kansas University and the beloved Jayhawk Basketball program. Prior to moving to Silverdale WA, we lived in Lawrence KS for 10 years. Our kids grew up as Jayhawk fans. During our time there, we learned to have a tremendous appreciation for collegiate sports, and basketball in particular.
As such, whenever March rolls around, things get pretty crazy around the Jacobson Home. The brackets are printed out, filled in, and proudly scotch-taped to the refrigerator.
The Dance (NCAA Basketball Tournament) illicits a plethora of ruminating prognosticators who boast and brag about their picks, and claim to have some kind of psychic insider information to base their selections upon.
The same could be said of real estate. It seems that lately, we’ve had as many people attempting to forecast the future of real estate as we do those who are attempting to predict the match-ups going into the Final Four.
The last couple of years, our daughter, Emily, has won our family bracket challenge. This really annoys her 3 brothers who follow college hoops a lot more closely than she does.
In real estate, trying to forecast future trends, even for just the next 6 months, is many times simply a best guess. No one knows for certain what’s going to happen and when. Certainly there are indicators and previous cycle patterns to analyze and compare. But the reality remains, no one knows for certain.
But in real estate, there is one thing we can say with confidence :
“No Two Markets are the Same!”
Just because some Wall Street ‘suit’ in New York claims that the 2nd Great Depression has arrived and that the housing market has imploded, doesn’t mean it’s true across the board. Those guys earn a living on sound bytes and speculation. And if one more blonde TV News Starlet, scratching her way to higher ratings, refers to the current housing market as a ‘Holocaust,’ I promise I’m gonna hurl!
Are there areas in the US housing market where things are tough? You betcha! In some places, prices are dropping, valuations are decreasing, and foreclosures are rising at an alarming pace.
But there are just as many housing markets, if not more, that are experiencing somewhat stable or ‘normal‘ conditions. By ‘normal,’ I mean, the usual cycles historically associated with the real estate market. Every 8 to 10 years or so, we go through a market adjustment. After enjoying several years of very fast or brisk activity, the market begins to slow.
It is during these downturns, that the pessimistic media naysayers of ‘doom & gloom‘ act as though these kind of cycles have never happened to us before. The constant bombardment of their incessant negativity begins to affect us, and their created perception starts to become our reality.
Certainly, if one lone trader can adversely affect the cost of crude oil, then the constant negative bombardment of media hypesters can easily influence our perceptions over the current real estate market.
The real truth is that in some areas, real estate is in seriously bad shape. In other places it’s mediocre at best. And still yet in some markets, real estate is holding its own.
Please, don’t allow the Media’s broad brush strokes to paint an incorrect picture of YOUR market. If you’re looking to buy or sell, consult with your local real estate professional. No one is better equipped or knows your market more intimately than someone who is actively involved in providing expert representation in your specific area.
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Rich Jacobson is a licensed real estate professional providing empowerment and relentless representation for his clients of residential properties and vacant land throughout all of Kitsap County WA and portions of Pierce, Mason, and Jefferson Counties. You can also find him at KitsapLife.com and Crabbing in the Hood.
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Tags: Kitsap County Bites, market dynamics, poulsbo real estate, real estate
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